An existing series of fire-resistant buffers leaves McCall well-positioned to stop wildfire from spreading into the city, according to a study commissioned by McCall Fire and EMS.
The study was completed by XyloPlan, a company that models wildfire pathways based on topography, fuels, and historic weather data. The plan, which McCall Fire paid $10,000 to complete, will inform future wildfire prevention measures around the city.
“It’s our hope that communities will be able to undertake a prioritized risk reduction approach so that you don’t end up trying to do everything everywhere,” said XyloPlan Chief Wildfire Officer Dave Winnacker, a retired fire chief.
Primary threat: western winds
In McCall, wildfire is almost always driven by low-humidity winds from the west or southwest from August through early October—when fuels are dry and ripe for ignition.
Modeling shows that these winds could push wildfire into the city along pathways near Club Hill Boulevard, West Mountain Road, and the McCall Municipal Airport.
Yellow lines in the model represent ignition lines, while red lines lines represent the paths wildfire are likely to spread. The location of ignition does not significantly affect paths taken by the fire.
While pathways exist, McCall is largely protected by a series of buffers that would slow or stop wildfire from reaching the most developed and populated parts of the city.
The buffers, represented by blue lines in the modeling, include Idaho 55, the airport, the North Fork Payette River, wastewater storage ponds on Deinhard Lane, the Whitetail Club golf course, and the McCall Golf Course.
“We have a pretty good system of barriers along the edge of the community,” Winnacker said.
Structure-to-structure risk minimal
Homes outside of those barriers are at greater risk of wildfire, but with little risk of structure-to-structure spread due to spacing. Structure-to-structure fires burn hotter and can be difficult for firefighters to stop.
Extra measures can be taken around those homes to improve their wildfire resilience as well as the broader community’s, Winnacker said.
That includes removing brush up to 100 feet away from homes to create defensible space and retrofitting ember-resistant vents into the home.
Modeling showed fire is unlikely to spread into McCall from the north, south, or east.
“We tried really hard to get fire to spread from east to west,” Winnacker said. “From our perspective, there’s very little risk for an east to west fire.”
XyloPlan also modeled wildfire on the west side of Payette Lake along Warren Wagon Road. Models showed minimal fire spread, but Winnacker said that could change.
“In a future state where things were drier, there are definitely some opportunities for fire to spread, making it to the lakeshore,” he said.
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‘Worst case scenario better than we imagined’
McCall Fire Chief Garrett de Jong told Valley Lookout that the results of the study are promising and will help inform wildfire management strategies around the city.
“Even the worst-case scenario is better than we imagined,” de Jong said.
De Jong said McCall Fire will use the study to guide development applications, inform fuel treatment areas, and educate public and elected officials on long-term policy.
Development-based solutions
Winnacker emphasized that new development can be a tool for communities to boost wildfire resiliency, using DF Development’s Red Ridge Village proposal as an example.
“If the community of Red Ridge village is built out, that could form an additional non-burnable buffer,” he said.
The key, however, would be building Red Ridge to be wildfire resistant, which could include hardier building standards and strategically siting parking lots, roads, sports fields, and other amenities in predicted fire pathways.
“If fire were to spread across this area as it encounters the community, the first thing it encounters is a non-burnable feature, and all that energy is essentially wasted on something that won’t burn,” Winnacker said.
XyloPlan modeled how wildfire could interact with Red Ridge, which could build roughly 1,000 homes southwest of McCall off West Mountain Road. Models showed the subdivision could be susceptible to wildfire driven by east winds.
“We ran some ignition points farther out to (U.S. 95) to the west, and just did not see west to east pathways of any particular note,” Winnacker said.
De Jong was surprised by the concept of using development to improve community wildfire resilience.
“The big surprise from me from an evidence-based approach, is that new development, when done correctly and thoughtfully planned, can add (wildfire resistance) value to the City of McCall.”
McCall Fire is the first agency in Idaho to complete a wildfire pathways study.
Donnelly Fire and EMS is not planning to complete a XyloPlan study for Donnelly, Fire Chief Juan Bonilla said. Cascade Fire Chief Steve Hull hopes to eventually complete one for Cascade once funding is available.
Modeling completed by XyloPlan in other western states has been tested against actual wildfire pathways associated with major wildfires, including the recent Eaton and Altadena wildfires in southern California.
“The models do a pretty good job of picking up anticipated and actual fire behavior,” Winnacker said.
